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analysis: Working a multi-layered policy —Abbas Rashid

The grim struggle going on in Bajaur appears critical. To some degree this development of tribal lashkars being mobilised may be the result of the growing travails the tribes had to put up with as a result of the presence of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in their midst

The Marriott hotel bombing in Islamabad a fortnight ago in which more than 60 innocent people lost their lives and the assassination attempt a day after Eid against ANP leader Asfandyar Wali Khan illustrates yet again that we are up against a ruthless enemy given to the indiscriminate use of terror to achieve its objectives.

It is a spill-over of the disastrous wars of the Bush administration in Iraq and Afghanistan. But imposed or otherwise, it is a fight that we cannot now avoid. If the US stays with its current strategy it will eventually lose the war but in the process of doing so it can critically undermine Pakistan.

We do not have to fight the Bush administration’s ‘war on terror’ but we do need a carefully calibrated strategy of counter-insurgency in FATA and counter-terrorism across the country to meet this gravest of challenges within. In FATA and the NWFP, the internally displaced, desperate to escape the crossfire, may already number as high as 250,000. It is imperative that their needs be addressed on an emergency basis — and not just by the government.

There is an important shift in policy that should have come much earlier but is now taking place. With mixed success, as in the recent US visit of President Asif Zardari, the government is trying to make it clear to the US that their intrusions across the border are adding to the gravity of the crisis. There have been reported incidents of US soldiers and helicopters crossing the border from Afghanistan being fired at, as well as NATO supplies being stopped by Pakistani authorities for a short period.

To what extent this US administration or the next one listens to the message will also depend on the obverse: the government’s effort and success in ensuring that the tribal agencies are not used for launching attacks into Afghanistan against the US and Coalition forces. The sooner these forces leave Afghanistan the better; but meanwhile, we need to protect our sovereignty from the US as well as from the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

But how do we fight this war within? The military has to play a key role in the initial phase and serve as a back-stop over the long term. Better intelligence and policing with a massive infusion of development funds must follow the ongoing operations. The use of air power needs to be sharply reduced. Even more so at time when we have the key development of local tribesmen taking up arms to drive out militants from their areas.

“The tribesmen have risen against the militants. It could be a turning point in our fight against militancy,” says Owais Ghani, governor of the North West Frontier Province. Over the last few days such reports have multiplied. Fortunately the political as well as the military leadership appear to be in sync on the issue of increasingly according a leadership role to the tribal elders and supporting the tribes’ efforts to rid their areas of militants.

The grim struggle going on in Bajaur appears critical. To some degree this development of tribal lashkars being mobilised may be the result of the growing travails the tribes had to put up with as a result of the presence of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in their midst. In part it could be a consequence of the latter’s harsh creed and ruthlessness, not accompanied by any effort to help the local population with health or education or any other welfare service.

It should be pointed out though that estimates of routing the enemy in a period of two to three months appear extremely optimistic. In Bajaur, which is seen as a key arena of conflict, the mobilisation of tribal lashkars can be seen as a big step forward. Equally, it must be noted, that the ranks of the militants are getting beefed up by militants crossing over from Afghanistan as well as from other tribal agencies.

The effort by the political and the military leadership to enhance Pakistan’s ability to face up to the challenge also means that it now seeks to review the previous agreement apparently allowing for limited US action on this side of the border. However, it seems the US favours a policy of continuing to target the Taliban and Al Qaeda on Pakistan’s side of the border to keep the leadership on the run so that they cannot organise an attack on the US on the eve of elections.

This policy runs the risk of countering the strategy of separating the militants from the Pashtun nationalist or even the broader nationalist sentiment in Pakistan. A recent BBC poll in 23 countries found that a large majority of Pakistanis did not see Al Qaeda in a negative light.

It may well be that the response has much more to do with expressing resentment over the role of the US than a fondness for the Taliban or Al Qaeda. Surely we would have had very different results in the recent elections if that were not the case and if people actually favoured the philosophy and practice of the militants.

At the very minimum, however, the poll makes clear that there can be no broad support in Pakistan for a US-led war. As such, the US would have to minimise its intrusions in FATA and subsequently its presence in Afghanistan. Also, in the context of this rationale, it makes eminent sense for the Pakistan military to increasingly support the tribes’ resistance rather than lead the effort against the militants.

Further, the US needs to review its policy of not sharing intelligence with Pakistan. The change of guard in the ISI should also serve to reassure the US that its complaints of leaked intelligence are being seriously addressed by the country’s leadership.

A recent report by the RAND Corporation, one of the leading US think tanks, also criticises the notion of a war on terror arguing that intelligence and police cooperation should be key features of the US strategy to counter the terrorist activities in the region. And it argues that the US should rely much more on local military forces to police their own countries, which “means a light US military footprint or none at all”.

It would be useful for the incoming US administration to take a close look at this report.

Abbas Rashid lives in Lahore and can be contacted at abbasrh@gmail.com

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